Hurricanes

Here is an article from The Source, our on-line newspaper. You can read it and others at www.stjohnsource.com.

==================

Renowned Hurricane Forecasters Predict Busy Season
By Lynda Lohr — August 4, 2010

Although residents breathed a sigh of relief when Tropical Storm Colin disintegrated Wednesday, hurricane season still has a long way to go until it officially ends Nov. 30.
And the rest of hurricane season doesn’t look pretty.
The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray made that point clear Wednesday when they gave the territory a 27 percent chance of one or more hurricanes tracking within 50 miles and a 72 percent chance of them tracking within 100 miles.
The probabilities are even higher for named storms. According to Klotzbach and Gray, there's a 54 percent chance of one or more named storms tracking within 50 miles and a 72 percent chance of them tracking within 100 miles.
They said the Caribbean looks to be very active in 2010, with overall tropical cyclone activity in the region approaching levels experienced in 2004 and 2005.
In 2005, 28 storms, including the devastating Hurricane Katrina, formed. They put the chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean and Central America at 64 percent. The long-term average stands at 42 percent.
Overall, the hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2010 will be nearly twice that (195 percent) of the average season.
By comparison, 2009 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 69 percent of the average season.
Gray and Klotzbach maintained their June forecast of an above-average hurricane season with 18 named storms. With Alex, Bonnie and Colin ticked off the list, that’s 15 still to go. The next named storm will be Danielle.
Gray and Klotzbach predict that 10 those 18 named storms will become hurricanes. Of those 10, they expect five to develop into major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The long-term average stands at 9.6 for named storms, 5.9 for hurricanes and 2.3 for major hurricanes.
Unusually warm water in the Atlantic and the development of a La Nina are the reasons the Colorado State team thinks 2010 will be an active year.
“We believe that a moderate La Nina will be present over the next several months, which is associated with decreased levels of vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity,” Gray said.
According to Klotzbach, the very warm waters of the Atlantic are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors very conducive for an active Atlantic season.
The Colorado State team said current observed climate factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1952, 1958, 1998 and 2005 seasons, which overall had well above-average activity.
Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2010 season will have activity in line with the average of these four years.
As for the weather for the next week, meteorologist Luis Rosa at the National Weather Service in San Juan said that the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Colin will pass to the northeast of the territory Wednesday night. He expects the weather to clear up Thursday and remain clear for the next week.
“For the next seven days it will be tranquil,” he said.